Nigerian Airlines Could Build a $1bn Annual Market in West and Central Africa, Experts Say

Nigerian carriers have a credible path to developing a $1 billion annual market across West and Central Africa, provided they rebuild regional networks and governments reduce the tax and operating costs that continue to inflate fares, aviation experts said at a conference in Lagos.

For roughly two decades, West Africa’s coastal routes were a reliable source of revenue for Nigerian airlines. That position weakened with the expansion of Asky Airlines and the collapse of several Nigerian operators, allowing non-Nigerian carriers to capture much of the regional traffic. The sector is now recovering. Air Peace has grown to 13 destinations in West and Central Africa, while United Nigeria Airlines, ValueJet and Ibom Air are strengthening their regional presence.

Legal reforms have supported the revival. The Cape Town Convention practice directions and the Irrevocable Deregistration and Export Request Authorisation framework now make it easier for Nigerian airlines to acquire aircraft on dry lease, removing a long-standing obstacle to fleet expansion.

Demand indicators remain positive. Official Airline Guide schedule data show that Central and Western Africa recorded some of the fastest capacity growth globally, expanding by 15.7 to 16.9 percent. The African Airlines Association estimates the two subregions account for about 17.4 percent of Africa’s scheduled airline seat capacity. According to the International Air Transport Association, air travel demand across Africa grew by 6.4 percent year on year, exceeding the global average.

Within the region, domestic traffic, led largely by Nigeria, accounts for roughly 43 percent of the total. Intra-African international routes account for 44 percent. Europe remains the largest external market, attracting nearly 39 percent of traffic from West and Central Africa. West Africa contributes about 16 percent of total passenger traffic in Africa; Central Africa accounts for about one percent.

Connectivity remains uneven. Links between West and North Africa stand at approximately 34 percent, but direct connections to Southern and Central African regions fall to single digits. Nigeria has the highest passenger and aviation throughput in West and Central Africa, driven primarily by Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos.

Adedayo Olawuyi, chief commercial officer of United Nigeria Airlines, said demand is not the central problem. High taxes, foreign-currency expenses and missing infrastructure continue to pressure airline margins.

“How many of you would take a loan of 30 percent to invest in a business that gives you less than five percent profit? That is a pressing issue for airlines in Africa, specifically in Nigeria: the cost of financing,” Olawuyi said.

He identified pilot training, aircraft maintenance and simulator time as significant dollar-denominated expenses. “We earn naira but spend USD.”

Fuel costs have worsened the situation, rising from N900 per litre in December 2025 to N3,000 per litre in 2026. Those costs cannot be reduced without undermining safety, he added.

“Government needs to create an enabling environment for us,” Olawuyi said.

ECOWAS has recognised the scale of the problem. Passengers in the region face 66 separate charges, while airlines contend with 112 levies. The bloc adopted a plan to reduce passenger service and security charges by 25 percent and eliminate certain non-aviation ticket taxes by January 2026. Full implementation across member states, however, has stalled.

Industry observers say the West Coast remains a significant opportunity for Nigerian carriers, but airlines will need to coordinate to avoid oversupplying routes and to resist external competitive pressures. Central Africa is also opening up, with no strong local carriers and continued reliance on European, East African and West African airlines.

If charges are streamlined and operating conditions improve, experts estimate Nigerian airlines could turn the West and Central African market into a $1 billion annual business within a few years.